Over the last few months, a shift has reverberated across the sales market. There is stress on development sites, stress on retail condos and stress on hotels.

“It’s not a bloodbath, but people are bleeding,” says one broker requesting anonymity. “You can’t get a construction loan, you can’t get a partner, and you can’t get an anchor tenant on the commercial side. The outer boroughs spiked really hard and are coming back to reality. There is a long way to fall.”

Last year, sellers were trying to achieve buoyant 2015 pricing, explains Woody Heller, head of capital markets at Savills Studley. “That time has passed. There is still no shortage of capital, just a difference in pricing expectation.”

Woody HellerSavills Studley

But it’s not all bad news. There is still a gap between the supply of trophy product and global demand, says Douglas Harmon, chairman of capital markets at Cushman & Wakefield, who is currently marketing 237 Park Ave. “The shrinking inventory of trophy product is mismatched against a queue of global institutional investors who still view New York real estate as the best risk-adjusted, safe-haven investment option,” he says.

Andrew Scandalios, senior managing director of HFF, recently oversaw the sale of marquee property 60 Wall St., which needed a $1 billion mortgage. “There is more capital now — it’s just recognizing that the fundamentals are soft, rents are flat and [net-effective rents are going down],” Scandalios says. “But it’s worse in hotel and retail and multi-family, which are just behind office.”

Right now, Darcy Stacom, chairman of capital markets at CBRE, says the market needs a stronger critical mass of noteworthy transactions to give people “greater comfort” on pricing.

Stacom is completing the $2.21 billion sale of 245 Park Ave. to a Chinese insurance company, HNA Group. It achieved a trophy-size tab of $1,200 per foot. She also believes one key to spurring sales is for sellers to start at levels attractive — and achievable — enough to excite buyers.

So far, office investor Leslie Himmel, a principal with Himmel + Meringoff, is not thrilled about the high pricing ahead. “It takes time for sellers to have realistic cap rates that go along with the higher interest rates,” she says.

Himmel, for instance, is refinancing her properties. With cash on hand, she is preparing to take advantage of better deals ahead. In late 2016, interest rates were roughly 3.75 percent — now they are at 4.5 percent, Himmel says: “That’s a huge difference. We are locking in long-term rates [now], because we believe rates will continue to rise.”

Owner Grant Greenspan, a principal of the Kaufman Organization, says if he could buy another office building and fix it up in anticipation of further leasing velocity, he would do it. “But it has to be the right product and right location for right now,” Greenspan says.

As land prices rose, many buyers, like developer Jeffrey Katz of Sherwood Equities, simply walked away. “We are looking, but it’s hard
to find deals,” he adds.

The passage of the new 421-a legislation, Affordable New York, has begun to spur listings. “It definitely is tangible,” says Bob Knakal, chairman of New York investment sales at Cushman & Wakefield, who predicts a good second half.

245 PARK AVE. – Darcy Stacom (right) is currently completing the $2.21 billion sale of this Midtown tower to a Chinese insurance company.Brookfield Properties; CBRE

But the Trump administration’s plans to change tax laws is evoking feelings of 1986  — when tax laws protecting the wealthy were upended and the market tanked. “What will be the trade-off for a lower capital gains tax?” wonders Adelaide Polsinelli, senior managing director of Eastern Consolidated.

Some worry the 1031 tax-free exchange program may be dumped, which would allow the government to get its tax slice faster — rather than let gains remain sheltered by continually rolling into properties.

“It would have a substantial change in the market,” says Daniel Benedict, founder and president of Benedict Realty Group, a multifamily operator and developer. If the government brings down the highest tax rate from 35 to 20 percent, Benedict notes there is no longer a reason to shelter profits. “There is tremendous uncertainty.”