Long-awaited evidence that the commercial real estate market is about to stumble may finally be emerging.
According to newly released data from Real Capital Analytics, some $108 billion worth of commercial real estate is either in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy as of July 1, a jump of $60.5 billion from the start of the year as office and residential rents sag, condo sales languish and retailers go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, 120 properties in Manhattan worth nearly $8 billion are considered “troubled,” Real Capital’s data show. They include 84 apartment buildings, 24 office buildings, eight development sites, two hotels, two retail properties and one industrial building.
“It’s not surprising as we’ve had $100 billion in sales just in the last three years in New York — and many were highly leveraged,” observed Jon Caplan, an investment broker with Cushman & Wakefield.
The outer boroughs and Long Island combined have 78 troubled assets worth $1.7 billion, of which the four New York City boroughs account for $376.8 million.
So far, just $4.1 billion in problem loans have been resolved nationally, with Manhattan accounting for nearly $2 billion of that figure. Most resolutions have been in the form of loan modifications or short-term extensions, which Real Capital’s analysts say simply means many properties’ problems are being pushed off into the future.
“Excess leverage is endemic to every type of investor, all of which are facing difficulties refinancing mortgages as they come due,” the report said.
